How should probabilities be interpreted in criminal and civil cases?
If an event in a case is highly unlikely to have occurred by chance, can you conclude the defendant is guilty?
This highly interactive meeting, based on a real case (and including reference to others such as the Sally Clark, Lucia de Berk and Lucy Letby trials) where the speaker gave expert evidence, will give you the chance to see how your perception of guilt changes as each piece of evidence from the prosecution and defence is presented. It is a chance to see how easy it is to get it wrong when interpreting probabilities and explore the thought process needed to avoid such pitfalls.
After the meeting Members are invited to join the team for networking in Gray’s Inn Bar.
Nigel Marriott
Nigel Marriott is a Chartered Statistician and fellow of the Royal Statistical Society. He is an independent consultant with over 30 years’ experience of helping non-statisticians use statistical thinking to draw conclusions from data and make decisions. In addition to his work as an expert witness, he also blogs extensively about the use of statistics in the public domain.